Monday 6 May 2019

Eight Ways Donald Trump might lose the 2020 election...

  • He might die in his sleep. He's quite healthy, so not very probable. (P≈0.00000001 %)
  • He might die in a skiing accident. He doesn't ski, so not very probable. (P≈0.000000000001 %)
  • He might die in a crash of Air Force One. (P≈0.0000000001 %)
  • He might die in a crash of Marine One. (P≈0.000000001 %)
  • He might be shot by a right-wing lunatic (for 'not building the wall'). Americans tend to assassinate the 'wrong' presidents, so not very probable. (P≈0.000000001 %)
  • He might be shot by an agent of the Deep State. (P≈0.000000001 %)
  • He might be poisoned by an agent of the Deep State. (P≈0.000000001 %)
  • The Democrats field a progressive candidate with a 'populist progressive manifesto', who defeats Trump. (P≈0 %)
  • (P are estimated probabilities, as a percentage)

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